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5 Jul 2013
Flash: Risk around NFP estimates may lie to the downside - NAB
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) -The June US employment report is the key risk event on Friday, in which NAB Strategists believe risk around the jobs number estimates may lie to the downside.
According to NAB, "Following this week’s non-manufacturing ISM employment sub-component (strong) and the ADP private payroll survey (188k, above expectations) markets are priced for an outcome at least as good as the ‘official’ 165k median forecast rise in non-farm payrolls; the unemployment rate is seen ticking down to 7.5% from 7.6%, reversing the rise in May."
However, NAB notes there is a seasonal tendency for ADP to outperform the change in official private payrolls in June, concluding that could be "a hint risk around consensus NFP estimates may lie to the downside."
According to NAB, "Following this week’s non-manufacturing ISM employment sub-component (strong) and the ADP private payroll survey (188k, above expectations) markets are priced for an outcome at least as good as the ‘official’ 165k median forecast rise in non-farm payrolls; the unemployment rate is seen ticking down to 7.5% from 7.6%, reversing the rise in May."
However, NAB notes there is a seasonal tendency for ADP to outperform the change in official private payrolls in June, concluding that could be "a hint risk around consensus NFP estimates may lie to the downside."