Back
25 Feb 2015
China HSBC manufacturing PMI expected to move moderately higher – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Flemming J. Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, reviews today’s Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI release and further expects it to improve further in coming months, supported by the modest monetary easing, stabilising property markets and resilient exports.
Key Quotes
“The flash estimate for the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI in February improved to 50.1 (consensus: 49.5, DBM: 49.7) from a final reading of 49.7 in January. This is the second month in a row with a slight increase in the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI and it is now at its highest level since October.”
“The details were mixed with new orders improving slightly to 50.4 from 50.1 but export orders declining markedly to 47.1 from 50.2.”
“The inventory of finished goods component increased slightly to 50.2 from 49.5, whereas the new order-inventory balance has deteriorated slightly in recent months but overall remains at a relatively neutral level.”
“Hence, the overall picture appears to be a subdued Chinese economy that has started to stabilise. GDP in H1 15 will in our view remain relatively stable above 7% y/y due to favourable comparisons.”
“Last year the manufacturing PMI declined markedly in Q1 with current output in the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI bottoming out at 47.2 in March (the current level is 50.8).”
“We still expect the Chinese PMIs to move moderately higher in the coming months, supported by modest monetary easing, stabilisation in the property market and resilient exports.”
Key Quotes
“The flash estimate for the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI in February improved to 50.1 (consensus: 49.5, DBM: 49.7) from a final reading of 49.7 in January. This is the second month in a row with a slight increase in the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI and it is now at its highest level since October.”
“The details were mixed with new orders improving slightly to 50.4 from 50.1 but export orders declining markedly to 47.1 from 50.2.”
“The inventory of finished goods component increased slightly to 50.2 from 49.5, whereas the new order-inventory balance has deteriorated slightly in recent months but overall remains at a relatively neutral level.”
“Hence, the overall picture appears to be a subdued Chinese economy that has started to stabilise. GDP in H1 15 will in our view remain relatively stable above 7% y/y due to favourable comparisons.”
“Last year the manufacturing PMI declined markedly in Q1 with current output in the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI bottoming out at 47.2 in March (the current level is 50.8).”
“We still expect the Chinese PMIs to move moderately higher in the coming months, supported by modest monetary easing, stabilisation in the property market and resilient exports.”