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15 Apr 2015
US March Industrial production and Empire surveys paint bleak picture for US – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Rob Carnell of ING, reviews the US March IP and Empire surveys release, and further adds that the weak data has markets raising doubt on the September rate hike probability, while a possible June hike remains no longer in the picture.
Key Quotes
“US March industrial production data does not provide any consolation after yesterday’s poor retail sales figures. Consensus was for a weak 0.3%mom decline, but managed to exceed even this on the downside with a 0.6% mom fall.”
“The figures ex hi-tech and vehicles were even worse. Manufacturing was slightly less awful, and managed a positive sign, though only just (+0.1%mom), and utility and mining production was also dreadful. The best you can say about this is that it tees up April for a rebound.”
“But things don’t look much better looking ahead, with the New York Empire Manufacturing survey continuing its slide to -1.19 from 6.9 the previous month. New orders, the average workweek and the index for the number of employees all fell sharply. Shipments were about the only bright spot in an otherwise awful survey.”
“Markets are no longer even talking about a June rate hike as a possibility. With data like this, it is not surprising. And if things don’t shape up soon, then even September is going to look a hawkish call.”
Key Quotes
“US March industrial production data does not provide any consolation after yesterday’s poor retail sales figures. Consensus was for a weak 0.3%mom decline, but managed to exceed even this on the downside with a 0.6% mom fall.”
“The figures ex hi-tech and vehicles were even worse. Manufacturing was slightly less awful, and managed a positive sign, though only just (+0.1%mom), and utility and mining production was also dreadful. The best you can say about this is that it tees up April for a rebound.”
“But things don’t look much better looking ahead, with the New York Empire Manufacturing survey continuing its slide to -1.19 from 6.9 the previous month. New orders, the average workweek and the index for the number of employees all fell sharply. Shipments were about the only bright spot in an otherwise awful survey.”
“Markets are no longer even talking about a June rate hike as a possibility. With data like this, it is not surprising. And if things don’t shape up soon, then even September is going to look a hawkish call.”