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21 May 2015
FOMC Minutes: No June Fed hike, but meeting-by-meeting assessment– KBC
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The KBC Bank Research Team, reviews the FOMC Meeting Minutes, noting that the Fed looks a bit concerned about weak consumer spending, and will rely on a meeting-by-meeting assessment for hiking rates.
Key Quotes
“The Minutes of the April 2015 FOMC suggest that it is unlikely the lift-off will take place at the June meeting, especially due to concerns about growth and in particular consumer spending. Many participants thought it unlikely that the data available in June would provide sufficient confirmation that the conditions for raising the target range of the federal funds rate had been satisfied.”. “A few members anticipated the economy would be ready for a June lift-off.” Such a lift-off was though not entirely ruled out.”
“According to the Minutes, moderate growth is expected to resume, but concerns were highlighted that the stronger dollar and lower oil prices could prove to be lasting headwinds.”
“The FOMC decided to make its minds up meeting by meeting and rejected the idea of giving guidance about when a rate increase would be likely.”
“Besides the growth uncertainty, policymakers were also worried that the lift-off could trigger a sharp rise in yields, confirming the need of careful communication on the timing. They expressed also the fear of greater bond price volatility than previously due to the role high-frequency traders, decreased inventories of bonds held by broker-dealers and elevated assets of bond funds.”
“On inflation, many participants noted that measures of inflation averaged over several months continued to run below the long-run objective (2%). Short term this was expected to continue, but over the medium term the governors still expected a return to the long run objective, as transitory effects dissipated.”
“There was much discussion about the value of the long term equilibrium Fed fund rate, but no conclusions were reached.”
Key Quotes
“The Minutes of the April 2015 FOMC suggest that it is unlikely the lift-off will take place at the June meeting, especially due to concerns about growth and in particular consumer spending. Many participants thought it unlikely that the data available in June would provide sufficient confirmation that the conditions for raising the target range of the federal funds rate had been satisfied.”. “A few members anticipated the economy would be ready for a June lift-off.” Such a lift-off was though not entirely ruled out.”
“According to the Minutes, moderate growth is expected to resume, but concerns were highlighted that the stronger dollar and lower oil prices could prove to be lasting headwinds.”
“The FOMC decided to make its minds up meeting by meeting and rejected the idea of giving guidance about when a rate increase would be likely.”
“Besides the growth uncertainty, policymakers were also worried that the lift-off could trigger a sharp rise in yields, confirming the need of careful communication on the timing. They expressed also the fear of greater bond price volatility than previously due to the role high-frequency traders, decreased inventories of bonds held by broker-dealers and elevated assets of bond funds.”
“On inflation, many participants noted that measures of inflation averaged over several months continued to run below the long-run objective (2%). Short term this was expected to continue, but over the medium term the governors still expected a return to the long run objective, as transitory effects dissipated.”
“There was much discussion about the value of the long term equilibrium Fed fund rate, but no conclusions were reached.”