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27 Aug 2013
Flash: Will Syria escalate? – Deutsche Bank
FXstreet.com (New York) - In terms of what to expect in the coming days and weeks, the Obama administration is expected to first reach out and create a new coalition that will include the UK, France and several other smaller players (possibly several of the Gulf States already publicly involved in supporting the Syrian rebels), notes Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank.
Key quotes
Any potential action will be modeled off a combination of intensive cruise missile strikes and sustained fixed wing aircraft attacks by the US (along with UK and French forces). Targets will include Syrian Air Force bases, field command headquarters, communications centers, electrical facilities etc. although Syrian chemical/biological storage sites will not be targets.
The goal here is not to remove Assad’s government but rather severely weaken it and give the clear message that no further chemical/biological weapon attacks will be tolerated. How Syria and its allies react to that will clearly be followed closely but Frank sees a high risk that Iran will stop negotiations with the US/EU on nuclear issues. The ultimate risk in his mind is what happens if and when the Assad government is toppled as US policy makers are deeply concerned about who would take power.
The latest on Syria is that a US-Russian official meeting to discuss a political resolution to the Syrian crisis has been postponed – perhaps ending last hopes of a political resolution to the situation. The meeting was originally scheduled for August 28th.
Key quotes
Any potential action will be modeled off a combination of intensive cruise missile strikes and sustained fixed wing aircraft attacks by the US (along with UK and French forces). Targets will include Syrian Air Force bases, field command headquarters, communications centers, electrical facilities etc. although Syrian chemical/biological storage sites will not be targets.
The goal here is not to remove Assad’s government but rather severely weaken it and give the clear message that no further chemical/biological weapon attacks will be tolerated. How Syria and its allies react to that will clearly be followed closely but Frank sees a high risk that Iran will stop negotiations with the US/EU on nuclear issues. The ultimate risk in his mind is what happens if and when the Assad government is toppled as US policy makers are deeply concerned about who would take power.
The latest on Syria is that a US-Russian official meeting to discuss a political resolution to the Syrian crisis has been postponed – perhaps ending last hopes of a political resolution to the situation. The meeting was originally scheduled for August 28th.