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6 Nov 2015
US NFP to add fuel to December lift-off expectations - UOB
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at UOB, suggests that the NFP today (6 Nov) is likely to add a similar 182,000 jobs in October, higher from September’s lowly 142,000.
Key Quotes
“With the positive payrolls, markets expect the US unemployment rate to edge lower to 5% (from 5.1% in Sep). As usual, if we get another surprisingly strong NFP (well above 250,000) or a marked improvement in unemploymentrate (to below 5%), this will reinforce expectations that the Fed will start to normalize interest rates in December 2015, leading to higher UST yields and a broadly stronger USD.”
“Based on trading in futures and options data compiled by Bloomberg, the probability of a Fed liftoff by December is now at 56% (on 5 Nov) from 50% (3 Nov). Other than the labor market report, we will also get the September consumer credit data (expected to be higher at US$18bn from US$16bn in Aug) after US market close.”
Key Quotes
“With the positive payrolls, markets expect the US unemployment rate to edge lower to 5% (from 5.1% in Sep). As usual, if we get another surprisingly strong NFP (well above 250,000) or a marked improvement in unemploymentrate (to below 5%), this will reinforce expectations that the Fed will start to normalize interest rates in December 2015, leading to higher UST yields and a broadly stronger USD.”
“Based on trading in futures and options data compiled by Bloomberg, the probability of a Fed liftoff by December is now at 56% (on 5 Nov) from 50% (3 Nov). Other than the labor market report, we will also get the September consumer credit data (expected to be higher at US$18bn from US$16bn in Aug) after US market close.”