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9 Nov 2015
Fed December lift-off camp, rejoiced by strong NFP show - SocGen
FXStreet (Delhi) – Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that the FOMC members, who have been encouraging markets to price in a December lift-off, will be encouraged by the strong show of US nonfarm payrolls.
Key Quotes
“The US posted annual employment growth back (just) above 2% and wage growth is finally showing signs of life. The reaction to the data is barely more sensible than the reaction a month ago, mind you.”
“The two-month headline payrolls average is 204K, which compares to a 5-year average of 202K. The 137K in September and 271K in October are just noise around a very steady rate of job creation that is taking the US unemployment rate down at a rate of about 1% per annum.”
“That trend rate of job creation supports ‘2-point-something’ GDP growth and is inconsistent with a zero rate policy. The pick-up in wage growth to 2.5% y/y is a clear uptick but hardly scary, though it will surely be a catalyst for action unless the swings and roundabouts of the data calendar turn round again.”
Key Quotes
“The US posted annual employment growth back (just) above 2% and wage growth is finally showing signs of life. The reaction to the data is barely more sensible than the reaction a month ago, mind you.”
“The two-month headline payrolls average is 204K, which compares to a 5-year average of 202K. The 137K in September and 271K in October are just noise around a very steady rate of job creation that is taking the US unemployment rate down at a rate of about 1% per annum.”
“That trend rate of job creation supports ‘2-point-something’ GDP growth and is inconsistent with a zero rate policy. The pick-up in wage growth to 2.5% y/y is a clear uptick but hardly scary, though it will surely be a catalyst for action unless the swings and roundabouts of the data calendar turn round again.”