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28 Dec 2015
USD/RUB: Parabolic uptrend in 2016 - SocGen
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Societe Generale, suggests that a parabolic uptrend of 2014 for USD/RUB has given way to a lengthy consolidation, which should persist over the course of 2016.
Key Quotes
“USD/RUB spiked higher last December but faced stiff resistance near 78, the projected target for the multi-year channel upside breakout, where it formed a monthly shooting star. This pattern happened after a parabolic rally and the sudden reduction in the bullish positioning (i.e. the flow of profit-taking) resulted in the monthly close being far off highs and near the monthly open. This has led to a phase of consolidation that has spanned through 2015. The broad range has been between 72 and the multiyear channel upper limit at 52/48.”
“The upward move of 2014 resembles to the one in 2008-09, after which USD/RUB went into a prolonged sideways range that was contained within a broad triangle pattern. Thus, the sequence of expansion in momentum followed by contraction appears to be repetitive. Considering its duration, one can expect USD/RUB to remain sideways over 2016, between 72 and 52.”
Key Quotes
“USD/RUB spiked higher last December but faced stiff resistance near 78, the projected target for the multi-year channel upside breakout, where it formed a monthly shooting star. This pattern happened after a parabolic rally and the sudden reduction in the bullish positioning (i.e. the flow of profit-taking) resulted in the monthly close being far off highs and near the monthly open. This has led to a phase of consolidation that has spanned through 2015. The broad range has been between 72 and the multiyear channel upper limit at 52/48.”
“The upward move of 2014 resembles to the one in 2008-09, after which USD/RUB went into a prolonged sideways range that was contained within a broad triangle pattern. Thus, the sequence of expansion in momentum followed by contraction appears to be repetitive. Considering its duration, one can expect USD/RUB to remain sideways over 2016, between 72 and 52.”