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4 Jan 2016
ECb to keep euro down - Socgen
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Kit Juckes, economist at Societe Generale explained that the European calendar kicks off with German inflation figures. "6 months ago, it was all talk of inflation heading a bit higher as energy-related base effects faded."
Key Quotes:
"But oil is down again. The notion of upside economic surprises in Europe is one of the most-discussed ‘surprises' in the year ahead outlook pieces I've read. But for now, modest growth, no inflation and not much happening probably sums it up. Portuguese banks and Spanish politicians have been in the news, but in her warning about the dangers of sovereign default this year, Carmen Reinhart reminds us to keep at least one eye firmly on Greece. Still not solved.
If the Euro is strong, at times, it will be because of its absurd current account surplus. Anyone who's been watching Japan in recent years can surely understand how that works.
The ECB will continue to work to keep the currency down, as long as inflation is absent and until the markets start to price in a faster pace of Fed tightening."
Key Quotes:
"But oil is down again. The notion of upside economic surprises in Europe is one of the most-discussed ‘surprises' in the year ahead outlook pieces I've read. But for now, modest growth, no inflation and not much happening probably sums it up. Portuguese banks and Spanish politicians have been in the news, but in her warning about the dangers of sovereign default this year, Carmen Reinhart reminds us to keep at least one eye firmly on Greece. Still not solved.
If the Euro is strong, at times, it will be because of its absurd current account surplus. Anyone who's been watching Japan in recent years can surely understand how that works.
The ECB will continue to work to keep the currency down, as long as inflation is absent and until the markets start to price in a faster pace of Fed tightening."