Support for anti-establishment parties has faded - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explained that the level of support for anti-establishment parties has faded in recent months just as economic activity in many European economies has picked up pace. 

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Our modelling work suggests that this support will fade further in the period ahead 

We modelled the approval rate of populist parties using stock prices, the unemployment rate and refugee-related news. Economic recovery in the euro area and a decrease in news items concerning refugees have weighed on the popularity of populist parties.

We think the economy plays a major role in voting behaviour. The electorate will vote by assessing developments in the economy that are in turn reflected in the stock market. Stock prices have bounced in recent months and that has been a headwind for anti-establishment parties.