Oil in bear market, headline CPIs to drop across the globe

Oil is down more than 20% from its yearly highs - a classic case of a bear market. WTI Oil closed yesterday at $43.33/barrel (yearly high is $55.21). Brent closed at $45.80/barrel (yearly high is $58.35). 

The benchmarks look set to end on a weaker note for the fourth consecutive month. 

The bear market clearly represents the OPEC’s failure to convince markets that the 9-month extension of the output cut deal would counter the rise in the US Shale output and therefore reduce the supply glut. Also responsible for the drop in the oil prices is the increased production by countries like Libya, which have been exempt from the supply glut deal. 

Drop in headline CPIs likely, Fed could go slow with the rate hikes

The sell-off in the oil prices is likely to push the headline CPI (which includes energy prices) lower across the globe. The drop in the CPI would be more painful for the inflationists rooting for 2% annualised rise in inflation across the advanced world. 

The drop in the inflation may provide room for the Fed to go slow with the rate hikes. Markets do not expect the Fed to hike rates until December.