AUD/USD: poised for a break of the pain barrier for RBA, 0.8000?

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7944, up 0.26% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7972 and low at 0.7903.

AUD/USD is stabilising the offer from the aforementioned session high ahead of what could pan out to be a busy session for the Aussie poised for a test of the 0.80 handle on a positive CPI Q2 event this evening. 

Analysts at TD Securities note that monthly inflation continues to climb from the lows reached last year, and so they expect an upbeat Jun qtr CPI report. "We look for the Q2 trimmed mean to increase by +0.6%/qtr, picking up from 1.86%/yr to 1.93%/yr, and combined with a +0.55%/qtr lift in the weighted median measure (or 1.71%/yr) we see overall annual underlying inflation creeping up from 1.76%/yr to 1.82%/yr. "

There will also further focus on the Aussie tonight as we await a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe.

RBA: AUD pain point is here – Deutsche Bank

AUD/USD levels

Analysts at Commerzbank argued that AUD/USD is poised to encounter its 200 week ma. "Last week we saw the market halt just ahead of the 0.8011 200 week ma and very near term there is a 13 count on the daily chart and a TD perfected set up on the weekly chart and we suspect it will correct lower very near term," the analysts explained,adding, "currently, the corrective zone is indicated to be circa 0.7820-.7750. While above the uptrend at 0.7670 we will assume it is capable of further gains. Above 0.8011 targets the 0.8162/66 May 2015 peak and 50% retracement."