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14 Feb 2014
Flash: What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and BTMU
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is hovering over the 1.3700 handle on Friday, buoyed by the upbeat GDP data from Germany and France and ahead of the crucial figures from the EMU’s Q4 GDP due later.
According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, “While above 1.3550 we must allow for the possibility that the market will retest the 1.3740/35 recent high and Fibonacci retracement. Below 1.3550 will retarget 1.3476/59 – the recent low, the 55-month ma and Fibonacci retracement… Longer term we remain negative”.
In addition, Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Markets Research at BTMU, assessed “Mixed-to-weak data from the US in circumstances of emerging markets remaining stable is the best mix for EUR/USD moving higher. However, we would question how long that scenario can exist while the ECB will surely become more concerned about euro strength given how close the euro-zone is to entering a phase of problematic low levels of inflation. We still think EUR/USD will struggle to advance beyond the 1.3800 level”.
According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, “While above 1.3550 we must allow for the possibility that the market will retest the 1.3740/35 recent high and Fibonacci retracement. Below 1.3550 will retarget 1.3476/59 – the recent low, the 55-month ma and Fibonacci retracement… Longer term we remain negative”.
In addition, Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Markets Research at BTMU, assessed “Mixed-to-weak data from the US in circumstances of emerging markets remaining stable is the best mix for EUR/USD moving higher. However, we would question how long that scenario can exist while the ECB will surely become more concerned about euro strength given how close the euro-zone is to entering a phase of problematic low levels of inflation. We still think EUR/USD will struggle to advance beyond the 1.3800 level”.