GBP/USD: Eyes 200-week MA hurdle, focus on UK trade balance and manufacturing data

• Positive setup, looks set to test the 200-week moving average (MA) of 1.4240.
• A sustained rally likely if the UK data beats estimates.

The GBP/USD has scaled close to 200 pips in the last three trading days and could take out the 200-week moving average (MA) hurdle of 1.4240 in a convincing manner if the UK blows past expectations.

Note, the pair could focus more on the yield differential, given the fading US-China trade war fears. So, the UK data releases and the resulting change in the 10-year US-UK yield spread (currently at 138.8 basis points) could yield a bigger move in GBP/USD.

The UK trade figure, due at 08:30 GMT, is expected to show the goods trade deficit narrowed slightly to GBP 11.950 billion in February from  GBP 12.325 billion seen in January. Meanwhile, the UK February industrial production, also scheduled for release at 08:30 GMT, is seen rising 2.9 percent year-on-year vs 1.6 percent seen in January.

A drop in trade deficit and a better-than-expected industrial production/manufacturing production number could push GBP/USD to the recent high of 1.4245 (March 26 high). A convincing break above 1.4245 cannot be ruled out if the US core CPI pints below estimates and the Fed minutes carry a dovish tinge.

GBP/USD Technical Levels

Acceptance above the immediate resistance at 1.42 (psychological hurdle) would expose 1.4245 (March 26 high). A daily close above that level would open the doors to a sustained rally above the yearly high of 1.4345 (Jan. 25 high).

On the other side, failure to defend 1.4145 (Feb. 16 high) could yield a pullback to the ascending 21-day moving average lined up at 1.4071. A close lower would abort the bullish view and shift risk in favor of a drop to 1.40 (major psychological support).