Central Banks: Shift in policy settings not sufficient to be a strong tailwind – ABN AMRO

Nick Kounis, head financial markets research at ABN AMRO, suggests that the more accommodative policy stance at central banks is not (yet at least) a significant enough shift to be a strong tailwind for the global economy over the coming quarters.

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“We still characterise the situation as being one of policymakers taking their foot off the breaks rather than stepping on the gas. The Chinese authorities do not appear to be open to moving towards large-scale stimulus, as there is concern about a further building up of debt. Indeed, this week, Premier Li Keqiang expressed concern about the jump in credit in January, saying it could involve ‘potential risks’.”

“He asserted that the ‘fundamental path to solving China’s long-term development problems’ was structural reform. On balance, we expect the global economy to regain some traction later in the year, but the improvement is likely to be gradual and moderate. The shift in the stance of monetary policy is not sufficient to trigger the kind of rebound that we saw in 2016-17.”