When is the US monthly jobs report (NFP) and how could it affect EUR/USD?

US jobs report overview

Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of closely watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as NFP. The report is scheduled to be released at 12:30GMT and is expected to show that the US economy added 180K new jobs during the month of March as compared to the previous month's dismal headline print of 20K.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.8% during the reported month but the key focus will be on wage growth data, which have gained more traction in the recent past. Average hourly earnings are foreseen to ease a bit to 0.3% m/m, while the yearly rate is anticipated to match last month's reading of 3.4% y/y rate.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction to the headline NFP print, in case of a relative deviation of -1.23 or +0.98, is likely to be in the range of 54-52 pips during the first 15-minutes and could stretch to 105-90 pips in the subsequent 4-hours.

How could the data affect EUR/USD?

Ahead of the key release, Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers important technical levels to trade the major: “The 50 Simple Moving Average on the four-hour chart held it down earlier at 1.1235. Further resistance awaits at 1.1255 which was the high point this week. 1.1285 was a temporary high last week, and the peak of 1.1330 is next.”

“Support awaits at 1.1205 which was the low point earlier, and it is followed by the 2019 trough of 1.1176. Further down, we are back to levels last seen in 2017: 1.1115 and 1.1025,” he added further.

Key Notes

   •  Nonfarm Payrolls preview: no fireworks, but lots of trading opportunities

   •  Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Jobs, claims, and sentiment

   •  EUR/USD Forecast: Looking afraid of the upside ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls

   •  EUR/USD choppy around 1.1230, awaits NFP for fresh direction

About the US monthly jobs report

The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor presents the number of new jobs created during the previous month, in all non-agricultural business. The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile, due to its high relation with economic policy decisions made by the Central Bank. The number is also subject to strong reviews in the upcoming months, and those reviews also tend to trigger volatility in the forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish), although previous months reviews and the unemployment rate are as relevant as the headline figure, and therefore the reaction depends on how the market asses them all.