US: Focus on CPI and FOMC Minutes today - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the US CPI to pick up to 1.9% y/y in March on a sharp rise in gasoline prices.

Key Quotes

“For core CPI, we expect a weak 0.2% m/m print to leave annual core inflation at 2.1%, as OER is likely to moderate this month. Our forecasts suggest core PCE inflation is likely to slow to 1.7% by March.”

“Separately, after the sharp drop in the dots, markets will be looking at just how dovish the FOMC has become in the release of the March minutes on Wednesday. We put a very low but not zero chance on a cut discussion; conversely rate hikes are still on the horizon for the majority of Fed officials. Markets will also watch closely for additional details about the balance sheet. The minutes are likely to show peak dovishness in terms of nervousness about the outlook.”