US: Economic data for next week – NFB

Economic data to be released next week in the US includes April’s CPI. According to analysts at National Bank of Canada, the headline inflation likely dropped sharply in April.

Key Quotes:

“In the U.S., the release of March’s CPI data will be watched closely. While an economic downturn usually translates into weak core inflation, it could be a bit different this time around as supply issues are also at play. For that reason, we expect the core price index to have remained flat in April (the street is calling for a decline). This would still be consistent with a two-tick decline of the annual rate to 1.9%. The massive plunge in gasoline prices, meanwhile, should have led to a 0.7% monthly decline of the headline CPI in April, a scenario that would cause the 12-month rate to drop from 1.5% to 0.5%.”

“The full effects of the coronavirus will be visible in a host of other U.S. indicators for April due to be released this week. Industrial production might have shrunken a staggering 11.5% while retail sales very likely registered their worst monthly decline on record (-12.0%).”

“On the Fed talk trail, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker will discuss the impact to Covid-19 on Tuesday. Also on Tuesday, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis James Bullard will speak on the economic outlook.”