EUR/PLN: Bullish breakout remains intact – Rabobank

The bullish breakout in EUR/PLN remains valid despite the pullback from the year-to-date high at 4.6342 to around 4.40 over the summer, Piotr Matys, Senior Emerging Markets FX Strategist at Rabobank, informs.

Key quotes

“We are of the view that it is too early to declare that EUR/PLN has peaked this year. Another leg higher to around 4.80-5.00 may still unfold in the coming weeks on the back of growing evidence that Poland and a rising number of European countries are struggling to contain the second wave of the pandemic and governments, albeit very reluctantly, are forced to impose second national lockdowns.” 

“To declare that the bias has shifted to the downside (we anticipate this in 2021 when a coronavirus vaccine is available and we can gradually return to a relative normality) EUR/PLN would have to fall well below the 4.40 technical pivot.”